Lo Último

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Nueva fecha

Cómo queda el nuevo cronograma electoral

Las elecciones provinciales se corren 105 días para adelante. El cierre de listas para gobernador e intendente se produciría unos días antes de la presentación de candidatos para presidente y diputados nacionales. Bordet podría esperar hasta fines de abril para definir si desdobla las elecciones.
Pablo Bizai
Por: Pablo Bizai
pablobizai@gmail.com

Patear la pelota para adelante. Con estas cinco palabras se podría resumir el espíritu del proyecto del oficialismo que modifica la fecha de las elecciones provinciales en Entre Ríos y que estará ingresando esta semana a la Cámara de Diputados.

Como adelantó oportunamente Página Política, caída la posibilidad de una reforma del sistema electoral, el oficialismo va por modificar la fecha de la elección provincial, llevándola más cerca de la elección nacional. Si el gobernador Gustavo Bordet decide desdoblar, las PASO entrerrianas serían el 30 julio y las elecciones generales el 24 de septiembre.

Eso supone sumar tiempo para los armados electorales en todo el territorio provincial. Y también a la evaluación de los escenarios para adoptar definiciones. Todo se corre para adelante más de tres meses.

Actualmente, la ley 10.615 dispone que las elecciones provinciales se realizan el segundo domingo de junio, que este año cae 11. El proyecto propone llevar esa fecha al último domingo de septiembre, es decir, al 24. Son 105 días más para armar, para hacer campaña. También para retrasar una eventual derrota. Del 11 de junio al 24 de septiembre.

Las primarias de la elección provincial pasan del 9 de abril al 30 de julio.

En el cronograma actual el cierre de listas se fija 50 días antes de las PASO. Con la nueva fecha, sería el 10 de junio, unos días antes del cierre de listas para las elecciones presidenciales.

El cambio descomprime el armado electoral de toda la política entrerriana, que con el actual cronograma debería cerrar listas el 18 de febrero. Se trata no sólo de más tiempo, sino de un mejor tiempo para la actividad electoral, porque aleja el momento de las definiciones del receso de verano.

El proyecto no implica que Entre Ríos vaya a votar en forma separada de la nación. Esa es una facultad que sigue conservando el Gobernador. Lo que cambia es que ahora tendrá más tiempo para evaluar qué cosa le conviene: pegarse o separarse de la nación.

El proyecto dice que la convocatoria a las PASO del 30 de julio y a las generales del 24 de septiembre se debe hacer por decreto del Poder Ejecutivo Provincial o en su defecto por la Legislatura “con una antelación no menor a 150 días de la realización de las elecciones generales”.

El momento de la definición sobre un posible desdoblamiento se llevaría, entonces, a la última semana de abril. El 26 o 27 de abril. Con la ley vigente, Bordet tiene tiempo hasta el 12 de enero. En suma, con el proyecto que ingresa a Diputados Bordet comprará tiempo, como adelantó Página Política hace una semana:

 

Incertidumbre acotada

En este contexto, la incertidumbre de las últimas semanas se reduce en tanto queda descartada la posibilidad de reformar el sistema electoral entrerriano. Durante el mes de noviembre se especuló con la adopción de boleta única (como quería Bordet en la fallida reforma de 2018) y hasta se habló de una reforma constitucional exprés para evitar que una ley de lemas (como la que pedía un sector del peronismo) sea tachada de inconstitucional.

Nada de eso va a pasar. Los entrerrianos votarán en 2023 con la boleta sábana de siempre. Pero hay una incertidumbre que se extiende en el tiempo: si habrá o no desdoblamiento en Entre Ríos. Esto supone una postergación de la definición de estrategias en todos los espacios políticos.

Por ejemplo, en JxC esperaban arrancar el año electoral sabiendo si iban a tener o no en el cuarto oscuro el rostro de Javier Milei restando votos por derecha y a la interna nacional de JxC haciendo ruido en la provincial, como ocurriría si las elecciones provinciales fuesen simultáneas con las nacionales. Ahora tendrán que esperar hasta abril para saberlo.

Hay que recordar que si, cumplido el plazo, Bordet no convoca a elecciones provinciales, se vota todo junto en octubre, con PASO en agosto.

Pero hay más. El proyecto oficialista de prorrogar por 105 días las elecciones provinciales llega en un momento en el que en el orden nacional se habla de mover las elecciones presidenciales de octubre a noviembre. La lógica sería sumar tiempo para que mejoren los indicadores de la economía.

Esto agrega un condimento más a la decisión clave de desdoblar o votar junto con la nación. Si en abril no convoca a elecciones, Bordet estaría acompañando el proyecto nacional, quizá con Sergio Massa como candidato, reposicionado dentro del Frente de Todos en el caso de que alcance sus metas de bajar la inflación.

Una elección conjunta en un escenario no tan adverso para el peronismo como el actual, complicaría a la oposición en Entre Ríos por lo que ya se dijo: la incidencia de Milei y de la interna nacional de JxC. Pero si además esa elección nacional se lleva a noviembre, Bordet sufriría el menor daño posible ante una eventual derrota en la provincia, a sólo un mes de completar su mandato. Además, claro está, le permitiría atribuir el resultado a la ola nacional y no cargar con todo el costo de un revés electoral.

Fuente: Página Política
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