Lo Último

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elecciones

Las bancas que renueva Entre Ríos

Si la elección de este domingo fuera similar a la de agosto, Entre Ríos tendría a partir de diciembre una continuidad casi perfecta de su actual representación legislativa. El peronismo y Cambiemos conservarían sus bancas y hasta sus equilibrios internos.
Pablo Bizai
Por: Pablo Bizai
pablobizai@gmail.com

La elección de este domingo no se agota en la definición del nuevo presidente de la Nación. En este turno electoral, a Entre Ríos le toca renovar sus tres senadores y la mitad de sus diputados nacionales.

Pero, por la forma en la que está planteada esta elección, es altamente probable que la provincia mantenga el statu quo de su representación en el Congreso de la Nación.

Si este domingo se diera una elección similar a la de las primarias de agosto, las dos fuerzas mayoritarias de la provincia renovarían las bancas que ponen el juego. El peronismo retendría 2 bancas en el Senado y 2 en Diputados y Cambiemos una banca en el Senado y 2 en Diputados.

No sólo eso, cada fuerza mantendría idéntico equilibrio interno que el que hoy posee en esa representación.

Entre Ríos tiene 12 legisladores nacionales en el Congreso: 3 senadores y 9 diputados. 6 son de Cambiemos y 6 peronistas. De los 6 peronistas, 4 responden a Gustavo Bordet y 2 a Cristina Fernández. De los 6 de Cambiemos, 3 son de PRO y 3 de la UCR.

Si este domingo vuelve a ganar el peronismo y Cambiemos vuelve a ser la segunda fuerza en un contexto de polarización similar al de agosto, esas proporciones se mantendrán exactamente igual desde diciembre.

Continuidad

Hoy el peronismo de Entre Ríos tiene 6 legisladores nacionales: 2 senadores y 4 diputados. De los 6, hay 4 que responden a Bordet: los 2 senadores (Pedro Guastavino y Sigrid Kunath) y 2 diputados (Juan José Bahillo y Mayda Cresto). Los otros dos, Julio Solanas y Juan Huss, se enrolan en el cristinismo.

A partir de diciembre también se espera que haya 6 legisladores peronistas por Entre Ríos en el Congreso: 2 senadores y 4 diputados. En tal caso, también serán 4 los que responderán a Bordet: 1 senador (Edgardo Kueider) y 3 diputados: Marcelo Casaretto, Cresto y Bahillo. Y 2 a Cristina: Estefanía Cora en el Senado y Blanca Osuna en Diputados. Mas información en la siguiente nota:


Hoy Cambiemos de Entre Ríos tiene 6 legisladores nacionales:1 senador y 5 diputados. De los 6, tres son de PRO (el senador Alfredo de Angeli y las diputadas Yanina Gayol y Alicia Fregonese) y 3 son de la UCR (los diputados Marcelo Monfort, Atilio Benedetti y Jorge Lacoste).

Desde diciembre, se espera que esa proporción se mantenga exactamente igual. Los 3 del PRO serían De Angeli, Fregonese y Gustavo Hein y los 3 de la UCR Atilio Benedetti, Jorge Lacoste y Gabriela Lena. La continuidad es tan exacta que hasta respeta la interna radical: se va Monfort y entra Lena, los dos de la corriente Illia. Más detalles en la siguiente nota:

Poco probable

Para que esta casi perfecta continuidad política de la representación entrerriana en el Congreso de la Nación se vea alterada debería variar de manera determinante el escenario electoral de agosto a octubre.

Por ejemplo, un triunfo de Cambiemos en la provincia no alteraría la distribución de las cuatro bancas de diputados en partes iguales con el peronismo, pero le permitiría robarle un senador el PJ. Es el objetivo motivador de la militancia que se ha buscado bajar en la UCR (la segunda en la lista es radical) bajo el argumento que el milagro electoral está más cerca en una provincia donde la diferencia para este cargo en las primarias fue de siete puntos, la mitad del promedio nacional.


La otra variante pasaría por una profundización del derrumbe electoral de Cambiemos y, al mismo tiempo, el crecimiento de la tercera alternativa, Consenso Federal de Roberto Lavagna, lo suficiente como para quedarse con uno de los dos diputados que el resultado de agosto asegura al principal frente opositor de Entre Ríos. No es imposible, pero se presenta poco probable.

Esta segunda variante no sólo modificaría el actual equilibrio político de la representación parlamentaria. También implicaría una alteración de la polarización que ha sido muy marcada en las tres elecciones de este año en Entre Ríos: primarias provinciales del 14 de abril, generales provinciales del 9 de junio y primarias nacionales del 11 de agosto.

Tendría un impacto político fuerte, además, porque le haría perder una banca al PRO, la que ocuparía Hein, el único candidato que responde por completo al jefe de Cambiemos en Entre Ríos, Rogelio Frigerio. Simplificando: un crecimiento significativo en votos para Lavagna perjudicaría, antes que nadie, a Frigerio.

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