Lo Último

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Octubre

Radiografía de una elección que poco y nada define en Entre Ríos

No hay antecedentes, en tres décadas de democracia, de una elección en la que nada parece seriamente ponerse en juego. En Entre Ríos, además, esa característica se acentúa porque se espera una continuidad casi perfecta de la representación legislativa.
Pablo Bizai
Por: Pablo Bizai
pablobizai@gmail.com

Está claro que cada elección es especial. Que responde a un contexto propio, particular. Y que en Argentina los contextos pueden variar enormemente en cuestión de meses, de semanas. Pero cuesta hallar un antecedente como el actual, de inicio de una campaña electoral para una elección general en la que nada parece realmente ponerse en juego.

Los propios dirigentes de Cambiemos dan por hecho que el 27 de octubre comenzará oficialmente para la coalición el pos macrismo. Nadie, como no sea para motivar a la militancia, plantea seriamente encarar la campaña con la quimérica idea de lograr la reelección de Mauricio Macri, en medio de una profunda crisis económica que obligó a declarar la emergencia alimentaria. Es más, todo el establishment nacional se mueve hace ya un mes –tras las primarias del 11 de agosto- como si Alberto Fernández fuera presidente electo.
alberto bordet.jpg
Pero en la provincia de Entre Ríos esa idea de que la elección del 27 de octubre nada modificará se acentúa por otra particularidad histórica: es altamente probable que la provincia mantenga el statu quo de su representación en el Congreso de la Nación.

¿No hay nada para definir en la categoría presidente? Pues parece que tampoco en la de senadores y diputados nacionales por Entre Ríos.

Si en octubre se repite una elección similar a la de agosto, las dos fuerzas mayoritarias de la provincia renovarán las bancas que ponen el juego. El peronismo retendrá 2 bancas en el Senado y 2 en Diputados y Cambiemos una banca en el Senado y 2 en Diputados.

No sólo eso, cada fuerza mantendrá idéntico equilibrio interno que el que hoy posee en esa representación.

Entre Ríos tiene 12 legisladores nacionales en el Congreso: 3 senadores y 9 diputados. 6 son de Cambiemos y 6 peronistas. De los 6 peronistas, 4 responden a Gustavo Bordet y 2 a Cristina Fernández. De los 6 de Cambiemos, 3 son de PRO y 3 de la UCR.

Si en octubre vuelve a ganar el peronismo y Cambiemos es la segunda fuerza, esas proporciones se mantendrán exactamente igual desde diciembre.

Continuidad

Hoy el peronismo de Entre Ríos tiene 6 legisladores nacionales: 2 senadores y 4 diputados. De los 6, hay 4 que responden a Bordet: los 2 senadores (Pedro Guastavino y Sigrid Kunath) y 2 diputados (Juan José Bahillo y Mayda Cresto). Los otros dos, Julio Solanas y Juan Huss, se enrolan en el cristinismo.

A partir de diciembre también habrá 6 legisladores peronistas por Entre Ríos en el Congreso: 2 senadores y 4 diputados. Y también serán 4 los que responderán a Bordet: 1 senador (Edgardo Kueider) y 3 diputados: Marcelo Casaretto, Cresto y Bahillo. Y 2 a Cristina: Estefanía Cora en el Senado y Blanca Osuna en Diputados. Mas información en la siguiente nota:

Hoy Cambiemos de Entre Ríos tiene 6 legisladores nacionales:1 senador y 5 diputados. De los 6, tres son de PRO (el senador Alfredo de Angeli y las diputadas Yanina Gayol y Alicia Fregonese) y 3 son de la UCR (los diputados Marcelo Monfort, Atilio Benedetti y Jorge Lacoste).

Desde diciembre esa proporción se mantendrá exactamente igual. Los 3 del PRO serán De Angeli, Fregonese y Gustavo Hein y los 3 de la UCR Atilio Benedetti, Jorge Lacoste y Gabriela Lena. La continuidad es tan exacta que hasta respeta la interna radical: se va Monfort y entra Lena, los dos de la corriente Illia. Más detalles en la siguiente nota:

Posible, pero poco probable

Para que esta casi perfecta continuidad política de la representación entrerriana en el Congreso de la Nación se vea alterada debería variar de manera determinante el escenario electoral de agosto a octubre.

Por ejemplo, un triunfo de Cambiemos en la provincia no alteraría la distribución de las cuatro bancas de diputados en partes iguales con el peronismo, pero le permitiría robarle un senador el PJ. Es el objetivo motivador de la militancia que se busca bajar en la UCR (la segunda en la lista es radical) bajo el argumento que el milagro electoral está más cerca en una provincia donde la diferencia para este cargo en las primarias fue de siete puntos, la mitad del promedio nacional.

La otra variante pasaría por una profundización del derrumbe electoral de Cambiemos y, al mismo tiempo, el crecimiento de la tercera alternativa de Roberto Lavagna, lo suficiente como para quedarse con uno de los dos diputados que el resultado de agosto asegura al principal frente opositor de Entre Ríos. No es imposible, pero se presenta poco probable.

Esta segunda variante no sólo modificaría el actual equilibrio político de la representación parlamentaria. También implicaría una alteración de la polarización que ha sido muy marcada en las tres elecciones de este año en Entre Ríos: primarias provinciales del 14 de abril, generales provinciales del 9 de junio y primarias nacionales del 11 de agosto.
hein frigerio.jpg
Tendría un impacto político fuerte, además, porque le haría perder una banca al PRO, la que ocuparía Hein, el único candidato que responde por completo al jefe de Cambiemos en Entre Ríos, Rogelio Frigerio. Simplificando: un crecimiento significativo en votos para Lavagna perjudicaría, antes que nadie, a Frigerio.

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