Lo Último

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Entre Ríos

La cuarta y menos atractiva elección del año

La elección presidencial del domingo es, al mismo tiempo, la más importante y la que menos expectativas genera de las elecciones que este año se realizaron en Entre Ríos. Más allá del resultado, en cada distrito este domingo dejará un mapa de referencias territoriales.
Pablo Bizai
Por: Pablo Bizai
pablobizai@gmail.com

Este domingo, 27 de octubre, será la cuarta vez en el año que los entrerrianos votan. Hubo elecciones primarias provinciales el 14 de abril, generales provinciales el 9 de junio y primarias nacionales el 11 de agosto.

Se podría decir que, en varios sentidos, la serie electoral fue de mayor a menor en Entre Ríos.

La elección de abril fue la que más cantidad de boletas tuvo en el cuarto oscuro. Y la que, en consecuencia, se presentó más compleja para el elector.

En clave estrictamente política, al ser la primera del año, fue la que más definición le aportó al escenario provincial. El 58% que reunió el peronismo sorprendió a propios y extraños. Le tomó el pulso a la gravedad de la crisis –que en ese momento cumplía un año- y su impacto en un electorado que venía, un año y medio antes, de darle mayoritariamente un voto de confianza a Cambiemos. Abril marcó la cancha.
bordet solo.jpg
Las Paso provinciales midieron también la eficacia de la reunificación peronista, que sumada al fracaso económico de Cambiemos, explicó los guarismos históricos con los que terminaría siendo reelecto el gobernador Gustavo Bordet, más allá de sus méritos propios y de los defectos de sus contrincantes.

Bordet fue este año a elecciones como único candidato a gobernador peronista. Es la primera vez que ocurre algo así en esta provincia en lo que va del siglo.

Todo el nuevo escenario se montó en abril. En junio se confirmó, porque nada había cambiado en dos meses. Y para las primarias nacionales de agosto la dirigencia provincial de las dos fuerzas mayoritarias hizo poco y nada. Dejaron que la ola nacional golpeara la provincia y la colocara en un lugar que finalmente no sorprendió: en la Entre Ríos donde Mauricio Macri venía ganando desde 2015, Alberto Fernández se impuso por algo más de nueve puntos de diferencia, bastante por debajo de la media nacional de casi 16.

El 11 de agosto aportó sentido común. No era posible que un presidente con todos los indicadores de la economía en contra aspirara a empatar o quedar sólo unos pocos puntos abajo, como decían las encuestas.

Expectativas

La serie de las elecciones en Entre Ríos también va de mayor a menor en relación a las expectativas por el resultado. Nadie espera seriamente en Cambiemos dar vuelta nada este domingo, más allá de que la movilización que logró Macri haya sido toda una novedad positiva para su campaña.

La marcha del “Si se puede” no ha buscado otra cosa que aportar optimismo a los propios y, con un poco de suerte, recuperar algunos votos desencantados de Cambiemos. No es más que una inyección anímica que le permite al Presidente una retirada del poder con la ilusión de un alto apoyo popular. Le sirve para recordar a todos que recibió 8 millones de votos en agosto.
macri urquiza.jpg
En términos simbólicos constituye un dato sorprendente para un presidente que entregará el país mucho peor de lo que lo recibió hace cuatro años: con reservas al mínimo, como el que dejó Cristina Fernández en 2015, pero con el agregado de un fuerte endeudamiento, de miles de pymes cerradas, de una inflación que ha sumado 20 meses sostenidos de caída del salario real. En suma, un país con más pobreza, el indicador con el que el propio Macri había pedido que juzguen su gestión.

Las expectativas, en suma, no están puestas en el domingo, sino en el lunes; en el temor a un desborde mayor de una economía que Macri dejará como pesada herencia a Fernández.

Para el domingo, las dudas no están en quien gana, sino en por cuánto gana. La lógica indica que Bordet, como jefe del peronismo provincial, debería ampliar su diferencia de menos de 10 puntos. Después del 11 de agosto la economía no ha hecho otra cosa que empeorar y, con poco, el aparato electoral del PJ provincial habrá hecho mucho más que en agosto, cuando la actividad proselitista y de logística para la elección fue mínima.
Alberto Bordet.jpg
Los resultados que los referentes peronistas obtengan en sus distritos, en las provincias y en las ciudades, serán la base de la relación política con el próximo presidente.

En la vereda de enfrente, Cambiemos de Entre Ríos también afronta la elección de este domingo con mayor movilización que en agosto. La nota distintiva es un incremento espontáneo de militancia (muchos sorprendidos por el “palazo” electoral recibido en agosto), potenciada por las marchas del “Si se puede”, que aportará, entre otras cosas, a una mejor fiscalización.

El manual de la política rige también para la oposición: las referencias territoriales se construyen a partir de los resultados de la última elección. Y Cambiemos empezará, desde el lunes, a recorrer un camino de reformulación y reposicionamientos internos.
frigerio

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