Lo Último

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Elecciones 2023

En JxC hay quienes las prefieren unificadas

Miran el antecedente de 2015, cuando se votó presidente y gobernador en un mismo acto electoral y De Angeli estuvo muy cerca de vencer a Bordet. Advierten que en 2023 el contexto económico será peor que el que dejó el segundo gobierno de Cristina y en Entre Ríos tendrán, con Frigerio, un candidato más competitivo.
Pablo Bizai
Por: Pablo Bizai
pablobizai@gmail.com

El manual de la especulación electoral indica que si un gobierno nacional está mal, el gobierno provincial del mismo signo político buscará tomar distancia, convocando a elecciones provinciales en forma separada de las nacionales. En Entre Ríos, el gobernador Gustavo Bordet conserva esa facultad. Puede llamar a elecciones provinciales para el mes de junio (con PASO en abril) y anticipar en cuatro meses la disputa provincial por su sucesión, separando este proceso de las elecciones presidenciales del mes de octubre (con PASO en agosto). Si no lo hace, se votará todo en octubre.

Si la economía está mal, qué mejor para Juntos por Entre Ríos que votar de manera simultánea con la nación, para que el peronismo provincial pague los costos de la extendida crisis de alta inflación y derrumbe del poder adquisitivo de los salarios.

Pero ese manual fue puesto en crisis cuando dentro de Juntos por Entre Ríos se evaluaron los posibles perjuicios que le podría acarrear votar gobernador  junto con presidente el mismo domingo de octubre de 2023.  Centralmente, por dos razones:

1. Efecto Milei. Sólo en una elección provincial unificada con la nacional puede Javier Milei restarle votos a Juntos por Entre Ríos, porque en tal caso el rostro del líder libertario encabezará la larga boleta sábana. No sería así en una elección desdoblada.

2. Interna nacional de JxC. Una elección simultánea obligaría a los candidatos a gobernador a definirse en la interna nacional de JxC y arriesgarse a generar divisiones. Por ejemplo, si Rogelio Frigerio se decide por Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, despertaría resistencia entre los halcones del PRO y dificultaría militar el voto dentro de la UCR para una boleta que lleva candidato a presidente y a gobernador del PRO. Una elección sólo provincial evitaría estos contratiempos.

Pero en JxC el debate está abierto. También están los que prefieren la unificación electoral. Afirman que la simultaneidad es el mejor negocio para el frente opositor en Entre Ríos.

Se basan el antecedente más cercano de una elección unificada (nacional y provincial) de final de ciclo, con un gobernador sin reelección, como ahora: 2015. Ese año Sergio Urribarri ya no podía repetir. Tampoco Cristina Fernández, que encarnaba en amplias franjas de la sociedad el cansancio por los 12 años consecutivos de kirchnerismo. Más allá de sus modos, Cristina terminaba su segundo gobierno con indicadores contrarios a los que había recibido de Néstor Kirchner: reaparición de la inflación, déficit fiscal y comercial, pérdida de la soberanía energética, restricción externa.

El optimismo de los que prefieren la simultaneidad electoral dentro de JxC se basa en dos diferencias centrales con 2015: el contexto económico es mucho peor que entonces y el candidato a gobernador que se supone se impondrá en la interna, Rogelio Frigerio, es objetivamente más competitivo que el de 2015.

En 2015, Alfredo De Ángeli estuvo a sólo 22 mil votos de quedarse con la gobernación, frente a un dirigente como Bordet, que interpretaba el final de ciclo con un perfil de peronista de buenos modales, más potable para el electorado cansado de Cristina Fernández.

En esa misma elección, Mauricio Macri ganó por mil votos en la provincia. Hubo una porción de votantes de Cambiemos que evaluaron que el chacarero (ya entonces senador) no estaba a la altura del cargo mayor de la provincia. Y siempre se habló de una falta de compromiso de la dirigencia radical -y también del PRO- con esa candidatura.

A pesar de que Macri no representaba el mejor candidato para la UCR (el principal partido de Cambiemos en Entre Ríos), le sirvió a los radicales para resucitar: ganaron las intendencias de ocho cabeceras departamentales y consiguieron sentar ocho senadores. Leen que Macri posibilitó triunfos impensados, como los de Lénico Aranda en Diamante, o Hugo Pitura en Rosario del Tala.  “Macri ganó con lo justo y sin embargo nos arrastró muchísimo”, sintetiza un dirigente radical que apoya a Frigerio.

 

Fuente: Página Política
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